Polling is, weird right now.
I’ve been following political polling since I was 16, and this year has the highest variability I’ve ever seen in a presidential election.
Polls this far out normally differ from the final tallies by between 5-9 points. Already a fairly large variance. I’m betting that polls will definitely be towards the higher end of the variance this year.
That being said, there’s no guarantee which way that will break.
Biden could be right and that he’s more ahead than the polls show, or he could be extra wrong and be even further behind.
Right now, I’m not putting much stock in polling. I’m not even really going to check much until July, when the variance starts to even out.