The professor who predicted the last 9 elections has spoken up, but thinks it’s still too early to predict this one.
Notably his criteria follows 13 specific bullet points, and if 6 or more Falses are declared then the incumbent is expected to lose.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. My verdict: False. The Dems have majority in the House.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. True. Trump has already won every Republican delegate so far except for like 1 or 2.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. True. The Republican president is trying to get reelected.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. True. Do I even need to explain this?
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Currently True, but we’ve been in a bubble for a long time, and that bubble is wobbling right now…
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. I need someone smarter than me to talk about this one.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. True. They’ve been disasters, but when you got the Limbaugh News networks running overtime damage control then context might not matter.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. False. Define “social unrest”, but there’s been a lot of growing frustration all over the country.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Haha, False.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. False. But again I fear Trump’s damage control teams might null this point.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False. But related to the above I think right wing propaganda might Alternative Fact this into a lying Truth.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. True. He’s a braindead moron-on-purpose who couldn’t say a coherent message if his life depends on it, but unless you’ve already seen through the grift then he can con you into believing his lies. Such is the power of a cult leader.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. True. Assuming Bernie is the nominee, then we got someone who looks like a hunchbacked bootleg Albert Einstein at the best of times. Everyone loves Bernie because of what his message is, but nobody likes Bernie for how he tells his message. And trying to describe “Biden” and “charisma” just leaves me with a laughing cry into my hands.
So by my estimate 3 irrevocable Falses, 2 that
should be inarguable Falses but might not matter because propaganda, and 2 pending.
Not good odds.
