Viewing last 25 versions of post by Zincy in topic Don't blame me, I voted for the other guy. (Politics General)

"[@vit":](/generals/tartarus/post/4409780#post_4409780

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He may already be screwed. Some number crunching has revealed that without making inroads into swing states and independents it may be mathematically impossible for him to win.


 
The reason?


 
Gen X, Y, and Z. If these generations come out at even 1/2 the turnout they did in 2018 they could sink him. By 2020 there will be many mofre Gen Z able to vote (between 2 and 3 million) and many less Boomers (between 200,000 and 1mil). Trend data shows Gen Z "punching up" for their age, voting between 30 and 40% of their total, way higher than Gen X, Y, or the boomers did at their age. Gen Y meanwhile has been steadily increasing in voting share, with 2018 being the first time they've made up the largest voting bloc behind Boomers. Lastly, Gen X has thus far been defying the "you lean right as you age" thing, with most of their population voting similarly to how they did throughout their lives.


 
Basically, if we apply the metrics from 2018 to 2020, and assuming they are motivated and Trump continues to fail at making in-roads, then he may lose by a historic amount.

"@vit":/generals/tartarus/post/4409780#post_4409780

He may already be screwed. Some number crunching has revealed that without making inroads into swing states and independents it may be mathematically impossible for him to win.

The reason?

Gen X, Y, and Z. If these generations come out at even 1/2 the turnout they did in 2018 they could sink him. By 2020 there will be many of Gen Z able to vote (between 2 and 3 million) and many less Boomers (between 200,000 and 1mil). Trend data shows Gen Z "punching up" for their age, voting between 30 and 40% of their total, way higher than Gen X, Y, or the boomers did at their age. Gen Y meanwhile has been steadily increasing in voting share, with 2018 being the first time they've made up the largest voting bloc behind Boomers. Lastly, Gen X has thus far been defying the "you lean right as you age" thing, with most of their population voting similarly to how they did throughout their lives.

Basically, if we apply the metrics from 2018 to 2020, and assuming they are motivated and Trump continues to fail at making in-roads, then he may lose by a historic amount.